Everything about Brokered Convention totally explained
A
brokered convention refers to a situation in
United States politics in which there are not enough delegates obtained during the
presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority in the first round of voting of the
presidential nominating convention. Once the first ballot has been held, and no candidate has a majority of delegate votes, the convention is then considered
brokered, and the nomination is decided through
political horse-trading and further ballots.
Background
Before the era of presidential primaries, conventions were routinely brokered.
Adlai Stevenson in
1952 for the
Democratic Party and
Thomas Dewey in
1948 for the
Republican Party were the last two candidates selected through a brokered convention, although the Democratic Party's
1968 convention might have been brokered had it not been for the assassination of
Robert F. Kennedy. The last brokered convention to yield a nominee that went on to win the general election was the Democratic convention in
1932 that nominated
Franklin Roosevelt.
Since then, there have been many years when brokered conventions were projected but didn't come to pass. In
1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats since several candidates won the
Super Tuesday primaries that year.
Brokered conventions today
Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process. First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the
bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them. Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself (there are barely two months between the major parties' conventions and Election Day). Also, the candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must climb additional hurdles in a relatively short time to gain election.
Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to
Election Day, it's considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.
2008 presidential election
For the
2008 election there has been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention may commence without a presumptive nominee.
For the Democrats a brokered convention is still quite possible. The only other candidate with pledged delegates is
John Edwards, and with barely 0.5 percent of the total delegates, Edwards is unlikely to be able to use them for any significant leverage. In addition, under Democratic Party rules, delegates pledged to a candidate may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than that candidate, even if that candidate is no longer running for the nomination. Delegates pledged to John Edwards may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than Edwards. For the Democratic convention to be declared a brokered convention, with neither remaining candidate gaining a simple majority of votes at the first ballot, the vote would have to be very close, falling within the margin of Edwards' delegates, and whatever abstentions may occur. This doesn't consider the fact that
Michigan and
Florida's delegates won't be seated; however, it's unclear if the candidate must obtain a majority the total possible delegates or a majority of delegates minus Michigan and Florida.
Superdelegate votes are counted in the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this isn't the original sense of the term.
For the Republicans, a brokered convention was also forecasted because of the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of "winner take all" states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them. With John McCain winning the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and the subsequent withdrawal of his strongest challenger, Mitt Romney, the brokered convention was averted.
Brokered conventions in popular culture
The movie
The Best Man depicts the brokered convention of an unnamed political party, with two candidates vying for the support of a previous President.
In the last two episodes of season six of
The West Wing, the Democratic party fought through a brokered convention, with
dark horse candidate Matthew Santos (
Jimmy Smits) eventually prevailing.
Further Information
Get more info on 'Brokered Convention'.
|
External Link Exchanges
Do you know how hard it is to get a link from a large encyclopaedia? Well we're different and will prove it. To get a link from us just add the following HTML to your site on a relevant page:
<a href="http://brokered_convention.totallyexplained.com">Brokered convention Totally Explained</a>
Then simply click through this link from your web page. Our crawlers will verify your link, extract the title of your web page and instantly add a link back to it. If you like you can remove the words Totally Explained and embed the link in article text.
As long as your link remains in place, we'll keep our link to you right here. Please play fair - our crawlers are watching. Your site must be closely related to this one's topic. Any kind of spamming, dubious practises or removing the link will result in your link from us being dropped and, potentially, your whole site being banned. |
